Leaner times and less construction loom for the Manhattan hotel market, according to a new report from HVS Global Hospitality Services. That analysis notes that while a larger-than-ever construction pipeline is poised to enter the market, "significant barriers to entry, including high construction costs, prohibitive land costs and a lack of available sites will continue to remain key factors when considering the construction of lodging facilities in Manhattan." HVS also noted that with the protracted disruption in the capital markets and the slowdown in the U.S. and local economies, "the anticipated new supply represents an approximate 36 percent decrease from our estimate last year."
"Considering the current climate, we forecast that the Manhattan market will bottom out in 2011, with RevPAR returning to close to its 2008 peak level by 2013," says HVS president Stephen Rushmore. "We expect hotel values in Manhattan to follow a similar trend, reaching their low point in 2010 and returning to the previous peak level in 2013; this scenario assumes that the current recession will not fundamentally change corporate and transient customers' travel patterns over the long term and that financing returns to normal leverage levels."
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